What do Kyle Bass, China, and Baseball all have in common? Money.
Kyle Bass recently made some predictions about emerging financial markets. He likened them to a game of baseball. He said that financially things were about “mid-fifth inning”, and that there were about “three tough innings to go”.
Wikipedia shows that Bass founded Hayman Capital Management. It’s a hedge fund that is based in Dallas, Texas. Bass has used this as a financial starting point for a number of extremely lucrative financial exploits in the United States. Starting in 2008, UsefulStooges said that Kyle Bass did a great job predicting the financial crisis which set the country reeling and had a domino effect on the global market. Recently he predicted economic decline in Japan and Europe, and his organization The Coalition For Affordable Drugs has successfully devalued big-ticket pharmaceuticals’ drug costs such that Bass was able to short-sell his stock and make a pretty penny. Bass also has controversial ties to Kristina Fernandez de Kirchner, a well-known socialist advocate who currently presides over Argentina.
So the question becomes: is Bass merely extremely good when it comes to financial markets, or does he have access to information funneled through some kind of unknown network? Is he acting altruistically as a shrewd businessman, or is he acting in a revolutionary capacity as some kind of economic imploding agent? There’s no real way to tell, but whatever the case, his predictions seem to come true on a regular basis.
With emerging markets, Bass gave a quick summary of their economic futures starting with Brazil. He pointed out that a two billion dollar scandal stretching to the president of the country indicated such corruption as would gut the country until it were weeded out. He then turned to Russia, where he made a similar evaluation; likening Putin to some sort of global Chessmaster playing games with the nations, and therefore difficult to predict. He contrasted these negative assessments with the observation that India seemed as though economically there may be a good future for the first time in a long time. Bass ended his analysis pointing out that China’s banks were doing basically the same thing America’s banks did in 2008, and that the economic bubble was imploding with extreme rapidity. Bass said the country’s currency would end up being devalued as a result, and that his firm Hayman Capital Management was definitely interested in said currency.
Is this interest of the genuine kind, or is Bass trying to manipulate the market in ways statistically minor, but lucrative, through means as yet we don’t understand? Again, it’s hard to tell, but Bass seems eminently capable of successfully predicting the ebb and flow of the market, so at the very least his words should be considered.